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Do Technical Analysis and Charting Work? Can Technical Analysis and Charting make me money? Is there any Secret Formula for Success in Trading? These are the questions which are always on every trader's mind.

There are many documented success stories of individuals who win big year after year, using technical trading methods exclusively.There's Ed Seykota, who multiplied his clients’ accounts by 2500 times(250,000%) in about ten years and Michael Marcus, who parlayed a $30,000 initial stake into $80 million.

Another famous trader, Larry Williams, who won a national trading competition in 1987 by multiplying $10,000 into over $1,000,000 in one year. He subsequently wrote a book titled, How I Turned $10,000 Into $1 Million in One Year.

Is there any Secret Formula to make such money? Did these gentlemen discover the secret to riches? Not according to them. Each of these traders said they use technical methods, almost exclusively. If you read their interviews, you will find that each trader said basically the same thing - "develop a trading system that matches your trading style,and maintain discipline in sticking to your system".

According to them, the Formula for Success in Trading is:

1. Find a trading style that matches your personality.
2. Develop a system according to the trading style.
3. Stick to the system (discipline).


Every successful trader develops a trading style that matches his or her personality. You, too, have a natural inclination towards your own, personal style. And whatever your style, it is important that your trading match it.

• You may be very short-term oriented, wanting to capitalize on quick, five-to-ten-day moves to make many small profits over a long period of time.
• If you are less active or more sensitive to commission costs, you may want to trade every six weeks or so, and to set wide stops so that your trades have breathing room.
• You may want to focus on the general market trend, or may feel more confident trading short-term opportunities against the trend. 

Hence, almost any method will work, if it matches your personality and incorporates good money management principles. So, select a method which suits you well , trade accordingly and avoid looking for Trading Tips.

The Sensex didn't perform as well in 2010 as it did in 2009. In 2009 the Sensex returns was 77% and in 2010 it was just about 18%. But some of the individual sectors performed better than the benchmark index. The top sectoral perpformances came from the consumer durables with a spectacular 64% return, followed by the auto sector and the healthcare sector which posted an impressive 33% returns each.The biggest loser was the realty sector,down about 25% and the power sector fell by 7%.

So, going forward, what is the outlook for equity markets and other investing opportunities in 2011? One of the most important things to look at for 2011 is where to invest. Should one choose Stocks, Bank FDs or Commodities like precious metals?


Equities: There is no doubt markets are fairly valued on FY11 Sensex EPS numbers and Investors entering at current levels have not big upside left. But for a longer time horizon , there is for scope for making gains, based on FY12 numbers. The Sensex EPS estimates are between 1250-1290, based on various brokerage estimates. Based on 5 year average P/E for Indian markets, the Sensex has targets of about 21250-21900. Hence,investors can enter only on corrections to buy fundamentally sound large and mid cap stocks and the sectors to watch out are Banking, Capital goods,Midcap IT and Metals. So one has to be very stock specific to make better returns than the index. Keep watching the Stock Watch section for more stock specific updates.

Fixed Income: Fixed Income returns are to become more robust. The last few years' return in fixed income assets has barely been able to match inflation. But this is set to change, since interest rates are on the rise and Bank FD rates ( 9 to 9.5% p.a) reflecting the same. Hence one can expect higher returns in Bank FDs than the past couple of years.

Gold and Silver: While the stocks have gone up reasonably, the precious metals - gold and silver - have massively outperformed them.However, will silver and gold continue to outperform stocks like it has done in the previous year? It is most likely will continue to do well but Gold unlike other investments acts as an insurance policy against inflation.Hence 10-15% is the maximum exposure one could have exposure to Gold and Silver and not go overboard on this.

Hence, investors can take cue from the above mentioned points and depending upon their risk profile thye should take their decisions.

Be a wise investor !

Punjab and Sind Bank, a PSU Bank, is coming out with an IPO of 4cr shares of Rs.10 each in the price band of Rs.113- Rs.120. The main objective of the issue is to augment capital base to meet future capital requirements and other general corporate purposes.PSB is a mid-sized bank with a network of 920 branches, serving over 5m customers.

The bank has over 100 years of banking experience and established relationships with customers, including the Central and State Governments and public sector enterprises and their presence is predominantly in Punjab and other north Indian states.

The revenues for FY10 stand at Rs.4326cr and PAT at 506cr , resulting in an EPs of Rs.27. The book value of the bank is at Rs.105, while the most of the mid-cap PSU banks are quoting between 1-1.5 times book value, the pricing of the issue seems okay. Medium to Long term investors can go for this issue.

Details of the issue:

Issue Open: Dec 13, 2010 - Dec 16, 2010.
Face Value: Rs. 10 Per Equity Share.
Issue Price: Rs. 113 - Rs. 120 Per Equity Share.(5 % discount offered to retail investors)
Market Lot: 50 Shares.
Listing at BSE and NSE.